Market Review 23 OKT 2013

• Data Ketenagakerjaan AS Mengecewakan Dollar. Dollar AS anjlok ke dekat level terendah 2-tahun versus Euro pasca laporan pemerintah yang hanya menunjukkan pertumbuhan 148.000 pekerjaan pada bulan lalu, yang mendukung harapan bahwa Federal Reserve akan mempertahankan laju program stimulus tidak berubah di sepanjang sisa tahun ini. Para ekonom sebelumnya memperkirakan Non Farm Payrolls akan meningkat 180.000.

• Penyusutan Defisit Inggris Melegakan Sterling. Sterling melesat ke level puncak 3-pekan terhadap Dollar AS seiring menguatnya neraca keuangan Inggris pada bulan September, dengan perbaikan ekonomi mendorong pendapatan pajak yang lebih tinggi. Defisit Inggris menyusut menjadi £11,1 milyar pada bulan lalu dari £12,1 milyar pada bulan September 2012, menurut Office for National Statistics. Cable juga diuntungkan oleh kejatuhan Greenback menyusul data pekerjaan AS yang lebih lemah dari ekspektasi ekonom.

• Proyeksi BHP Menopang Rally Aussie. Dollar Australia melonjak ke level tertinggi 4½-bulan versus Greenback setelah perusahaan pertambangan terbesar di dunia menaikkan proyeksi produksi bijih besi, komoditas ekspor terbesar Australia. BHP Billiton Ltd. memperkirakan total produksi bijih besi mereka akan meningkat ke 212 juta ton pada tahun ini, lebih tinggi dari proyeksi sebelumnya yang sebesar 207 juta ton.

 AS Ciptakan 148.000 Pekerja Baru di Bulan September. Di bulan September, ekonomi AS terlihat hanya menambahkan 148.000 pekerja, jauh lebih buruk dari perkirakan, berdasarkan laporan yang tertunda lebih dari 2-pekan karena shutdown pemerintah. Tingkat pengangguran secara tak terduga turun menjadi 7.2%, level terendah sejak November 2008, seiring tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja bertahan dekat level terendah dalam 35-tahun, menurut departemen tenaga kerja. Penciptaan lapangan kerja oleh swasta sebanyak 122.000 dengan pemerintahan negara bagian dan lokal menambahkan 28.000 serta pemerintah federal memangkas 6.000 pekerja.

 Asia Nantikan Data Tenaga Kerja AS. Bursa saham Asia bergerak mixed seiring merebaknya kewaspadaan menjelang laporan tenaga kerja AS yang dapat memberikan petunjuk tentang stimulus moneter oleh Fed. Nikkei menguat akibat pelemahan yen yang diharapkan dapat memperbaiki daya saing eksportir Jepang. Kospi tidak banyak berubah seiring munculnya kehati-hatian menjelang publikasi data tenaga kerja AS. Hang Seng turun akibat kekhawatiran Cina akan mengetatkan kebijakan di sektor properti pasca berlanjutnya kenaikan harga rumah di Cina.

• Indeks S&P 500 Terbang, Menuju Penguatan Tahunan Terbaik Sejak 2003. Lambatnya pertumbuhan penerimaan kerja telah memicu spekulasi bahwa Federal Reserve akan memperpanjang stimulus moneter yang mana itu mengangkat bursa saham AS dan mendorong indeks Standard & Poor 500 ke penguatan tahunan dalam persentase penguatan terbaik tahunan dalam satu dekade. Indeks S&P 500 naik sebanyak 0.6% menjadi 1,754.64 pada penutupan pasar setelah kemarin ditutup di rekor tertinggi, membawa kenaikan pada indeks sejak Desember menjadi 23.0%. Indeks akan mencapai level 1.761 untuk melewati lonjakan sebesar 23.2% di tahun 2009 dan bersiap untuk kenaikan tahunan terbesar sejak 2003, ketika indeks menguat 26.4%.

 Emas Naik 2% Setelah Data Kerja Yang Mengecewakan. Emas bertahan di level tertinggi dalam tiga pekan pada hari Selasa setelah angka yang lemah pada data kerja yang naikan perkiraan bahwa Fed akan pertahankan stimulus sampai 2014. Data payroll menyajikan penambahan 148.000 pekerja di bulan September, dibawah perkiraan 180.00 dalam poling reuters, meningkatkan kecemasan bahwa AS telah kehilangan momentum bahkan sebelum shutdown pemerintah pada bulan ini. “Kita bahkan tidak mendekati angka 180.000, pengambilan keputusan tapering Fed masih sangat jauh, mungkin tidak untuk tahun ini dan itulah alasan mengapa semua melonjak, seperti ekuitas, komoditas dan terutama emas,” kata Robin Bhar, analis di Societe Generale.

• Minyak Turun Dibawah $98 Untuk Pertama Kalinya Sejak Juli. Minyak WTI turun dibawah $98 perbarel atas spekluasi bahwa pemerintah akan laporkan persediaan minyak AS naik ke level tertinggi dalam tiga bulan. Selisih harga minyak WTI terhadap Brent adalah yang terbesar sejak April. Minyak berjangka turun sebanyak 1.4 %. Persediaan minyak naik ke level tertinggi dalam lima pekan, menurut survey Bloomberg terhadap analis sebelum dirilisnya data dari lembaga EIA pada hari Rabu. Minyak Brent yang di perdagangkan di London naik sebanyak 0.3% atas kecemasan pada perselisihan buruh di kilang Skotlandia mungkin akan batasi produksi minyak North Sea.

 EUR/USD. Bias netral dengan fase koreksi berpotensi bearish namun kita perlu break kebawah area 1.3710 untuk memicu momentum bearish lanjutan menguji ulang ke area 1.3645 dalam jangka pendek. Pada sisi atas, resisten terdekat terlihat di area 1.3795, break konsisten ke atas area tersebut seharusnya memicu tekanan bullish lanjutan menargetkan ke 1.3935 dalam jangka panjang.

 GBP/USD. Bias netral dalam jangka pendek dengan potensi kisaran perdagangan terlihat di antara area 1.6225 – 1.6095. Break ke atas area 1.6225 akan memicu momentum bullish lebih lanjut setidaknya ke ara 1.6260 sebelum menguji ulang ke wilayah 1.6380 dalam jangka panjang. Pada sisi bawah, support terdekat terlihat di kisaran area 1.6145, break kebawah area tersebut akan memicu fase koreksi bearish menguji ulang ke 1.6095 atau bahkan lebih rendah lagi.

 USD/JPY. Bias kembali bullish menuju zona target idealnya di area 98.70 sebelum menuju area kunci resisten di 99.00. Pada sisi bawah, hanya break kebawah area 97.55 yang akan memicu skenario koreksi bearish untuk menguji ulang ke area kunci support di 97.00, namun skenario bullish masih berlaku selama harga masih di atas wilayah 96.55.

• XAU/USD. Bias masih bullish dalam jangka pendek. Resisten terdekat terlihat di kisaran area 1352, jika harga mampu break ke atas area tersebut dapat memicu tekanan bullish lebih lanjut menuju area 1366 atau bahkan ke 1375 dalam jangka panjang. Pada sisi bawah, support terdekat berada di kisaran 1330 sebelum menargetkan ke area 1320 sebagai level support selanjutnya.

• Hang Seng Futures. Bias bullish dalam jangka pendek. Resisten terdekat terlihat di kisaran area 23550, break keatas area tersebut dapat memicu bullish lebih lanjut untuk menargetkan ke wilayah 23675. Pada sisi bawah, support terdekat terlihat di kisaran area 23380, jika harga mampu menembus kebawah area tersebut dapat memicu pergerakan bearish lainnya menuju area 23260. Bagaimanapun, selama harga masih di atas area 23260, bias bullish masih berlaku.

 Nikkei Futures. Bias masih bullish dalam jangka pendek menguji ke area 14875 sebagai resisten terdekat, break ke atas area tersebut seharusnya memicu bullish lebih lanjut menuju area kunci resisten di 15000. Pada sisi bawah, diperlukan break kebawah area 14595 untuk memicu bearish lebih lanjut menuju area kunci support di 14420. Jika harga mampu break kebawah 14420 dapat merubah bias harian menjadi bearish.

 Kospi Futures. Profit taking sempat menekan Kospi turun kemarin, namun berhasil pulih dan ditutup di dekat harga pembukaan. Kospi nampak siap untuk melanjutkan rally bullish, terutama jika harga dapat menembus ke atas 273.80 menuju area 275.00 dalam jangka pendek. Hanya break ke bawah area 270.80 yang dapat memicu koreksi bearish lanjutan kembali ke area 269.00 sebelum menguji area 267.45.

OIL SLIPs ON PROFIT TAKING, DESPITE US DEAL HOPEs

World oil prices dipped on Friday despite hopes of a breakthrough in the crippling budget impasse in Washington, as dealers took profits and focused on a US supply glut, analysts said.

The market also slid on receding tensions in the Middle East, but the International Energy Agency cautioned that instability in the oil-rich region remained a supportive factor.

New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in November dropped $1.23 to $101.78 a barrel. Brent North Sea crude for November slid 29 cents to $111.57 per barrel in early afternoon London deals.

IMF GOLD SALES TO FUND LENDING TO POOR COUNTRIES

The International Monetary Fund announced Thursday it has harnessed windfall gold profits from member countries to fund loans to the world's poorest countries in the coming years.

"We have just reached the threshold of enough approvals from our membership to transfer the existing gold profit to meet the financing needs of our low-income countries," IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said.

Hopes Rise for Deal on US Political Crisis

Hopes rose Thursday for a breakthrough in the political impasse crippling Washington after "constructive" talks between President Barack Obama and top Republicans on a short term fix to stave off a debt default.

After days of deadlock, Republicans proposed a six-week extension of US borrowing authority in return for an agreement by Obama to negotiate on a budget that would restart federal operations, which ground to a halt on October 1.

Obama Nominates Janet Yellen to lead FED

President Barack Obama on Wednesday nominated respected economist Janet Yellen to lead the Federal Reserve, replacing outgoing Chairman Ben Bernanke, who carried the central bank through the financial crisis.

Yellen, 67, will be the first woman ever to lead the Fed and is widely expected to maintain Bernanke's focus on supporting the US economy until jobless ness can be brought down.

FED debated reeling in stimulus spending minuted

Federal Reserve policymakers debated whether to reduce monetary stimulus in September and wondered if standing pat would damage their communications strategy, according to the minutes of the meeting released Wednesday.

Thirteen alleged members of the loosely organized hacker collective known as Anonymous were indicted Thursday in connection with a series of online attacks on US companies and trade groups.

The indictment unsealed in Alexandria, Virginia, charged the 13 with attacks between September 2010 and January 2011 on the Motion Picture Association of America, Recording Industry Association of America, Visa, Mastercard, Bank of America and others.

The defendants were charged with organizing denial of service attacks aimed at shutting down the websites of the targets known as "Operation Payback."

The targets were chosen for their stand on piracy and copyright enforcement after the discontinuation of Pirate Bay, and the financial institutions later for ending transactions that allowed funds to be raised Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

The 13 "planned and executed a coordinated series of cyber-attacks against victim websites by flooding those websites with a huge volume of irrelevant Internet traffic with the intent to make the resources on the websites unavailable to customers and users of those websites," the indictment said.

Those named in the indictment were Dennis Owen Collins, Jeremy Leroy Heller, Chen Zhiwei, Joshua Phy, Ryan Russel Gubele, Robert Audubon Whitfield, Anthony Tadros, Geoffrey Kenneth Commander, Austen Stamm, Timothy Robert McLain, Wade Carl Williams and Thomas Bell.

Anonymous is a loose-knit group hacker activists, or "hacktivists," who have taken credit for scores of online attacks over the past few years.

The attacks range from the nuisance-like -- the FBI and Justice Department websites were back up within a few hours -- to the truly damaging involving the loss of data and the exposure of private financial information.

rl/rcw

Oil Price extend falls amid US shutdown

Global oil prices slid further on Tuesday as the US government shutdown began after lawmakers failed to reach consensus on continued funding of the federal government.

In late afternoon deals, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in November sank to $106.81 -- which was the lowest level since August 9. It later stood at $107.12, down $1.25 from Monday's closing level. Elsewhere, New York's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November lost 98 cents to $101.35 a barrel. 

Crude futures had already fallen Monday on worries about the possible government shutdown in the United States, which remains the world's biggest oil consuming nation.

"Crude oil prices came under renewed pressure on Tuesday following (the) shutdown of the US government that raised concerns about a slowdown in the US oil demand," said Myrto Sokou, senior research analyst at the Sucden brokerage in London.

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said Tuesday that the bank planned to boost its aid for fragile and conflict-affected states by 50 percent over the next three years.

Kim said the increase in support for the weakest countries is part of the Bank's goals to slash poverty and boost shared prosperity.

"We will increase our commitment to fragile and conflict-affected states, which will require us to be bolder, take more risks, and commit more resources," he said in a speech at George Washington University in Washington.

EU and GOOGLE near anti-trust deal

Google and the European Union appeared closer to a settlement in a high-stakes anti-trust dispute, with a senior EU official saying Tuesday the case could be resolved by next spring.

Pressed by Google's many rivals, the European Commission has accused the US Internet giant of giving unfair preference in search results to its own services, such as surveys of restaurants and hotels.

Google attempted to assuage the concerns earlier this year to avoid possible fines of up to 10 percent of its annual sales, but the EU said the US internet giant still fell short of satisfying complaints from its competitors.

But a new proposal submitted early in September and worked on with the Commission ever since shows "significant improvements", EU Competition Commissioner Joaquin 

Almunia told lawmakers in the European Parliament. If agreed, the new proposals could substantially change the appearance and operations of the world's most used search engine, but it remains to be seen if Google rivals will accept the changes.

cHINA TO BE WORLD'S TOP gold buyer THIS YEAR:EXPERTS

China is set to overtake India to become the world's top gold consumer this year, as the driving forces in the market shift from West to East, an industry association said Tuesday.

"Most likely this year we will see China overtake India slightly," Albert Cheng, the World Gold Council's managing director for the Far East told AFP in an interview on the sidelines of a conference in Rome.

 US stocks Tuesday moved higher in early trade despite the uncertainty generated by the US government's first shutdown in 17 years.

After 45 minutes of trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 6.09 points (0.04 percent) at 15,135.76.

The broad-based S&P 500 tacked on 4.28 (0.25 percent) at 1,685.83, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index rose 12.07 (0.32 percent) to 3,783.55.

The gains followed recent losses as investors grew nervous about a looming government shutdown amid a political impasse over striking a budget deal.

Art Hogan, head of product strategy for Lazard Capital Markets, said investors are likely assuming the shutdown will be short.

US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHUTS DOWN

Monuments closed, offices fell silent and 800,000 public servants were told to stay at home on Monday as Washington's perennial political crisis forced the first government shutdown in 17 years.

The effects of the budget battle ranged from the poignant to the symbolic. A social program that provides food to poor women and children was hit and the Statue of Liberty was closed to visitors.

Under the Capitol, where rival clans of lawmakers failed overnight to find a eleventh-hour deal to pass a federal budget, the National Mall was sealed off by a sign marked "area closed."