Market Review 131113

 Outlook Kebijakan Fed Menopang Dollar. Dollar AS melonjak ke level tertinggi 2-bulan versus Yen seiring spekulasi bahwa Federal Reserve akan mengurangi program pembelian $85 milyar obligasi per bulan lebih cepat dari yang diantisipasi sebelumnya, menyusul solidnya angka pekerjaan AS hari Jumat lalu.

 Sterling Terpukul Oleh Perlambatan Inflasi. Sterling terperosok ke posisi terendah 2-bulan terhadap dollar pasca data inflasi yang lebih lemah dari perkiraan meredam ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Inggris. Inflasi harga konsumen Inggris tumbuh pada laju tahunan 2,2% di bulan Oktober, yang jauh lebih lambat dari ekspektasi 2,5%. Namun sterling berpotensi untuk kembali menguat jika Laporan inflasi BoE pada hari Rabu memberikan pandangan yang lebih optimis tentang tingkat pengangguran, faktor yang menjadi pertimbangan bank sentral sebelum naikkan suku bunga.

 Sentimen Bisnis Memburuk, Aussie Terpuruk. Dolar Australia anjlok ke level terendah 6-minggu versus Greenback setelah laporan dari National Australia Bank Ltd. menunjukkan indeks kepercayaan bisnis mencatat penurunan tertajam sejak 2011 di bulan Oktober. Sementara secara terpisah NAB juga merevisi proyeksi pemangkasan suku bunga Reserve Bank of Australia menjadi pada bulan Mei dari sebelumnya bulan Februari, menyusul berkurangnya kenaikan pengangguran.

 Fed Lockhart Ingin Melihat Inflasi Yang Lebih Tinggi Sebelum Tapering. Presiden Bank Fed Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart, mengatakan bahwa dia ingin melihat inflasi naik menuju target the Fed di level 2% sebelum bank sentral mengurangi pembelian obligasi bulanan yang sebesar $85 milyar. “Saya ingin melihat beberapa pergerakan menuju target” sebelum di lakukan tapering, kata Lockhart pada hari Selasa dalam wawancaranya di Bloommberg radio. Inflasi saat ini “stabil namun masih terlalu rendah” dan kenaikan inflasi“ akan berikan saya kepercayaan bahwa kita tidak akan berurusan dengan beberapa skenario pengurangan yang mungkin berkembang di pasar,” kata Lockhart, yang tidak mengikuti voting kebijakan tahun ini.

 Asia Nantikan Hasil Pertemuan Parlemen Cina. Bursa saham Asia bergerak mixed seiring investor menantikan hasil pertemuan parlemen Cina yang dapat menentukan arah kebijakan perekonomian terbesar No.2 di dunia tersebut. Nikkei rally, didukung oleh pelemahan yen yang diharapkan dapat memperbaiki daya saing eksportir Jepang. Kospi menguat seiring munculnya aksi bargain-hunting pasca kejatuhan tajam belakangan. Hang Seng melemah seiring merebaknya kewaspadaan menanti hasil pertemuan parlemen Cina.

Market Review 23 OKT 2013

• Data Ketenagakerjaan AS Mengecewakan Dollar. Dollar AS anjlok ke dekat level terendah 2-tahun versus Euro pasca laporan pemerintah yang hanya menunjukkan pertumbuhan 148.000 pekerjaan pada bulan lalu, yang mendukung harapan bahwa Federal Reserve akan mempertahankan laju program stimulus tidak berubah di sepanjang sisa tahun ini. Para ekonom sebelumnya memperkirakan Non Farm Payrolls akan meningkat 180.000.

• Penyusutan Defisit Inggris Melegakan Sterling. Sterling melesat ke level puncak 3-pekan terhadap Dollar AS seiring menguatnya neraca keuangan Inggris pada bulan September, dengan perbaikan ekonomi mendorong pendapatan pajak yang lebih tinggi. Defisit Inggris menyusut menjadi £11,1 milyar pada bulan lalu dari £12,1 milyar pada bulan September 2012, menurut Office for National Statistics. Cable juga diuntungkan oleh kejatuhan Greenback menyusul data pekerjaan AS yang lebih lemah dari ekspektasi ekonom.

• Proyeksi BHP Menopang Rally Aussie. Dollar Australia melonjak ke level tertinggi 4½-bulan versus Greenback setelah perusahaan pertambangan terbesar di dunia menaikkan proyeksi produksi bijih besi, komoditas ekspor terbesar Australia. BHP Billiton Ltd. memperkirakan total produksi bijih besi mereka akan meningkat ke 212 juta ton pada tahun ini, lebih tinggi dari proyeksi sebelumnya yang sebesar 207 juta ton.

 AS Ciptakan 148.000 Pekerja Baru di Bulan September. Di bulan September, ekonomi AS terlihat hanya menambahkan 148.000 pekerja, jauh lebih buruk dari perkirakan, berdasarkan laporan yang tertunda lebih dari 2-pekan karena shutdown pemerintah. Tingkat pengangguran secara tak terduga turun menjadi 7.2%, level terendah sejak November 2008, seiring tingkat partisipasi angkatan kerja bertahan dekat level terendah dalam 35-tahun, menurut departemen tenaga kerja. Penciptaan lapangan kerja oleh swasta sebanyak 122.000 dengan pemerintahan negara bagian dan lokal menambahkan 28.000 serta pemerintah federal memangkas 6.000 pekerja.

 Asia Nantikan Data Tenaga Kerja AS. Bursa saham Asia bergerak mixed seiring merebaknya kewaspadaan menjelang laporan tenaga kerja AS yang dapat memberikan petunjuk tentang stimulus moneter oleh Fed. Nikkei menguat akibat pelemahan yen yang diharapkan dapat memperbaiki daya saing eksportir Jepang. Kospi tidak banyak berubah seiring munculnya kehati-hatian menjelang publikasi data tenaga kerja AS. Hang Seng turun akibat kekhawatiran Cina akan mengetatkan kebijakan di sektor properti pasca berlanjutnya kenaikan harga rumah di Cina.

• Indeks S&P 500 Terbang, Menuju Penguatan Tahunan Terbaik Sejak 2003. Lambatnya pertumbuhan penerimaan kerja telah memicu spekulasi bahwa Federal Reserve akan memperpanjang stimulus moneter yang mana itu mengangkat bursa saham AS dan mendorong indeks Standard & Poor 500 ke penguatan tahunan dalam persentase penguatan terbaik tahunan dalam satu dekade. Indeks S&P 500 naik sebanyak 0.6% menjadi 1,754.64 pada penutupan pasar setelah kemarin ditutup di rekor tertinggi, membawa kenaikan pada indeks sejak Desember menjadi 23.0%. Indeks akan mencapai level 1.761 untuk melewati lonjakan sebesar 23.2% di tahun 2009 dan bersiap untuk kenaikan tahunan terbesar sejak 2003, ketika indeks menguat 26.4%.

 Emas Naik 2% Setelah Data Kerja Yang Mengecewakan. Emas bertahan di level tertinggi dalam tiga pekan pada hari Selasa setelah angka yang lemah pada data kerja yang naikan perkiraan bahwa Fed akan pertahankan stimulus sampai 2014. Data payroll menyajikan penambahan 148.000 pekerja di bulan September, dibawah perkiraan 180.00 dalam poling reuters, meningkatkan kecemasan bahwa AS telah kehilangan momentum bahkan sebelum shutdown pemerintah pada bulan ini. “Kita bahkan tidak mendekati angka 180.000, pengambilan keputusan tapering Fed masih sangat jauh, mungkin tidak untuk tahun ini dan itulah alasan mengapa semua melonjak, seperti ekuitas, komoditas dan terutama emas,” kata Robin Bhar, analis di Societe Generale.

• Minyak Turun Dibawah $98 Untuk Pertama Kalinya Sejak Juli. Minyak WTI turun dibawah $98 perbarel atas spekluasi bahwa pemerintah akan laporkan persediaan minyak AS naik ke level tertinggi dalam tiga bulan. Selisih harga minyak WTI terhadap Brent adalah yang terbesar sejak April. Minyak berjangka turun sebanyak 1.4 %. Persediaan minyak naik ke level tertinggi dalam lima pekan, menurut survey Bloomberg terhadap analis sebelum dirilisnya data dari lembaga EIA pada hari Rabu. Minyak Brent yang di perdagangkan di London naik sebanyak 0.3% atas kecemasan pada perselisihan buruh di kilang Skotlandia mungkin akan batasi produksi minyak North Sea.

 EUR/USD. Bias netral dengan fase koreksi berpotensi bearish namun kita perlu break kebawah area 1.3710 untuk memicu momentum bearish lanjutan menguji ulang ke area 1.3645 dalam jangka pendek. Pada sisi atas, resisten terdekat terlihat di area 1.3795, break konsisten ke atas area tersebut seharusnya memicu tekanan bullish lanjutan menargetkan ke 1.3935 dalam jangka panjang.

 GBP/USD. Bias netral dalam jangka pendek dengan potensi kisaran perdagangan terlihat di antara area 1.6225 – 1.6095. Break ke atas area 1.6225 akan memicu momentum bullish lebih lanjut setidaknya ke ara 1.6260 sebelum menguji ulang ke wilayah 1.6380 dalam jangka panjang. Pada sisi bawah, support terdekat terlihat di kisaran area 1.6145, break kebawah area tersebut akan memicu fase koreksi bearish menguji ulang ke 1.6095 atau bahkan lebih rendah lagi.

 USD/JPY. Bias kembali bullish menuju zona target idealnya di area 98.70 sebelum menuju area kunci resisten di 99.00. Pada sisi bawah, hanya break kebawah area 97.55 yang akan memicu skenario koreksi bearish untuk menguji ulang ke area kunci support di 97.00, namun skenario bullish masih berlaku selama harga masih di atas wilayah 96.55.

• XAU/USD. Bias masih bullish dalam jangka pendek. Resisten terdekat terlihat di kisaran area 1352, jika harga mampu break ke atas area tersebut dapat memicu tekanan bullish lebih lanjut menuju area 1366 atau bahkan ke 1375 dalam jangka panjang. Pada sisi bawah, support terdekat berada di kisaran 1330 sebelum menargetkan ke area 1320 sebagai level support selanjutnya.

• Hang Seng Futures. Bias bullish dalam jangka pendek. Resisten terdekat terlihat di kisaran area 23550, break keatas area tersebut dapat memicu bullish lebih lanjut untuk menargetkan ke wilayah 23675. Pada sisi bawah, support terdekat terlihat di kisaran area 23380, jika harga mampu menembus kebawah area tersebut dapat memicu pergerakan bearish lainnya menuju area 23260. Bagaimanapun, selama harga masih di atas area 23260, bias bullish masih berlaku.

 Nikkei Futures. Bias masih bullish dalam jangka pendek menguji ke area 14875 sebagai resisten terdekat, break ke atas area tersebut seharusnya memicu bullish lebih lanjut menuju area kunci resisten di 15000. Pada sisi bawah, diperlukan break kebawah area 14595 untuk memicu bearish lebih lanjut menuju area kunci support di 14420. Jika harga mampu break kebawah 14420 dapat merubah bias harian menjadi bearish.

 Kospi Futures. Profit taking sempat menekan Kospi turun kemarin, namun berhasil pulih dan ditutup di dekat harga pembukaan. Kospi nampak siap untuk melanjutkan rally bullish, terutama jika harga dapat menembus ke atas 273.80 menuju area 275.00 dalam jangka pendek. Hanya break ke bawah area 270.80 yang dapat memicu koreksi bearish lanjutan kembali ke area 269.00 sebelum menguji area 267.45.

OIL SLIPs ON PROFIT TAKING, DESPITE US DEAL HOPEs

World oil prices dipped on Friday despite hopes of a breakthrough in the crippling budget impasse in Washington, as dealers took profits and focused on a US supply glut, analysts said.

The market also slid on receding tensions in the Middle East, but the International Energy Agency cautioned that instability in the oil-rich region remained a supportive factor.

New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in November dropped $1.23 to $101.78 a barrel. Brent North Sea crude for November slid 29 cents to $111.57 per barrel in early afternoon London deals.

IMF GOLD SALES TO FUND LENDING TO POOR COUNTRIES

The International Monetary Fund announced Thursday it has harnessed windfall gold profits from member countries to fund loans to the world's poorest countries in the coming years.

"We have just reached the threshold of enough approvals from our membership to transfer the existing gold profit to meet the financing needs of our low-income countries," IMF managing director Christine Lagarde said.

Hopes Rise for Deal on US Political Crisis

Hopes rose Thursday for a breakthrough in the political impasse crippling Washington after "constructive" talks between President Barack Obama and top Republicans on a short term fix to stave off a debt default.

After days of deadlock, Republicans proposed a six-week extension of US borrowing authority in return for an agreement by Obama to negotiate on a budget that would restart federal operations, which ground to a halt on October 1.

Obama Nominates Janet Yellen to lead FED

President Barack Obama on Wednesday nominated respected economist Janet Yellen to lead the Federal Reserve, replacing outgoing Chairman Ben Bernanke, who carried the central bank through the financial crisis.

Yellen, 67, will be the first woman ever to lead the Fed and is widely expected to maintain Bernanke's focus on supporting the US economy until jobless ness can be brought down.

FED debated reeling in stimulus spending minuted

Federal Reserve policymakers debated whether to reduce monetary stimulus in September and wondered if standing pat would damage their communications strategy, according to the minutes of the meeting released Wednesday.

Thirteen alleged members of the loosely organized hacker collective known as Anonymous were indicted Thursday in connection with a series of online attacks on US companies and trade groups.

The indictment unsealed in Alexandria, Virginia, charged the 13 with attacks between September 2010 and January 2011 on the Motion Picture Association of America, Recording Industry Association of America, Visa, Mastercard, Bank of America and others.

The defendants were charged with organizing denial of service attacks aimed at shutting down the websites of the targets known as "Operation Payback."

The targets were chosen for their stand on piracy and copyright enforcement after the discontinuation of Pirate Bay, and the financial institutions later for ending transactions that allowed funds to be raised Wikileaks founder Julian Assange.

The 13 "planned and executed a coordinated series of cyber-attacks against victim websites by flooding those websites with a huge volume of irrelevant Internet traffic with the intent to make the resources on the websites unavailable to customers and users of those websites," the indictment said.

Those named in the indictment were Dennis Owen Collins, Jeremy Leroy Heller, Chen Zhiwei, Joshua Phy, Ryan Russel Gubele, Robert Audubon Whitfield, Anthony Tadros, Geoffrey Kenneth Commander, Austen Stamm, Timothy Robert McLain, Wade Carl Williams and Thomas Bell.

Anonymous is a loose-knit group hacker activists, or "hacktivists," who have taken credit for scores of online attacks over the past few years.

The attacks range from the nuisance-like -- the FBI and Justice Department websites were back up within a few hours -- to the truly damaging involving the loss of data and the exposure of private financial information.

rl/rcw

Oil Price extend falls amid US shutdown

Global oil prices slid further on Tuesday as the US government shutdown began after lawmakers failed to reach consensus on continued funding of the federal government.

In late afternoon deals, Brent North Sea crude for delivery in November sank to $106.81 -- which was the lowest level since August 9. It later stood at $107.12, down $1.25 from Monday's closing level. Elsewhere, New York's West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November lost 98 cents to $101.35 a barrel. 

Crude futures had already fallen Monday on worries about the possible government shutdown in the United States, which remains the world's biggest oil consuming nation.

"Crude oil prices came under renewed pressure on Tuesday following (the) shutdown of the US government that raised concerns about a slowdown in the US oil demand," said Myrto Sokou, senior research analyst at the Sucden brokerage in London.

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said Tuesday that the bank planned to boost its aid for fragile and conflict-affected states by 50 percent over the next three years.

Kim said the increase in support for the weakest countries is part of the Bank's goals to slash poverty and boost shared prosperity.

"We will increase our commitment to fragile and conflict-affected states, which will require us to be bolder, take more risks, and commit more resources," he said in a speech at George Washington University in Washington.

EU and GOOGLE near anti-trust deal

Google and the European Union appeared closer to a settlement in a high-stakes anti-trust dispute, with a senior EU official saying Tuesday the case could be resolved by next spring.

Pressed by Google's many rivals, the European Commission has accused the US Internet giant of giving unfair preference in search results to its own services, such as surveys of restaurants and hotels.

Google attempted to assuage the concerns earlier this year to avoid possible fines of up to 10 percent of its annual sales, but the EU said the US internet giant still fell short of satisfying complaints from its competitors.

But a new proposal submitted early in September and worked on with the Commission ever since shows "significant improvements", EU Competition Commissioner Joaquin 

Almunia told lawmakers in the European Parliament. If agreed, the new proposals could substantially change the appearance and operations of the world's most used search engine, but it remains to be seen if Google rivals will accept the changes.

cHINA TO BE WORLD'S TOP gold buyer THIS YEAR:EXPERTS

China is set to overtake India to become the world's top gold consumer this year, as the driving forces in the market shift from West to East, an industry association said Tuesday.

"Most likely this year we will see China overtake India slightly," Albert Cheng, the World Gold Council's managing director for the Far East told AFP in an interview on the sidelines of a conference in Rome.

 US stocks Tuesday moved higher in early trade despite the uncertainty generated by the US government's first shutdown in 17 years.

After 45 minutes of trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 6.09 points (0.04 percent) at 15,135.76.

The broad-based S&P 500 tacked on 4.28 (0.25 percent) at 1,685.83, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index rose 12.07 (0.32 percent) to 3,783.55.

The gains followed recent losses as investors grew nervous about a looming government shutdown amid a political impasse over striking a budget deal.

Art Hogan, head of product strategy for Lazard Capital Markets, said investors are likely assuming the shutdown will be short.

US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHUTS DOWN

Monuments closed, offices fell silent and 800,000 public servants were told to stay at home on Monday as Washington's perennial political crisis forced the first government shutdown in 17 years.

The effects of the budget battle ranged from the poignant to the symbolic. A social program that provides food to poor women and children was hit and the Statue of Liberty was closed to visitors.

Under the Capitol, where rival clans of lawmakers failed overnight to find a eleventh-hour deal to pass a federal budget, the National Mall was sealed off by a sign marked "area closed."

review

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City (latest release)
Frequency     Annually;
Next Release     Aug 24, 2013
FF Notes     The Economic Symposium, held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from around the world. The meetings are closed to the press but officials usually talk with reporters throughout the day. Comments and speeches from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility;

FOMC will decide to reduce its $85 billion in monthly

European stocks mainly fell on Wednesday as investors braced themselves ahead of the release of minutes from the US central bank which could give clues on the winding down of its stimulus programme, dealers said.

In afternoon deals, London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares dropped 0.55 percent to stand at 6,417.75 points.

Frankfurt's DAX 30 dipped 0.14 percent to 8,288.10 points, while the CAC 40 in Paris went against the stream, adding 0.16 percent to 4,035.39 compared with Tuesday's closing values.

With the US economy showing signs of improvement, analysts say the Fed will likely slow its bond-buying programme.

Kurs Rupiah Tembus Rp 10.000

Nilai tukar (kurs) rupiah akhirnya menembus 10.000 per dollar. Angka ini semula banyak dikhawatirkan karena dianggap semacam ‘batas psikologis’, sehingga tidak boleh terlewati. Bila batas tadi terlewati ditakutkan akan menyebabkan kepercayaan terhadap Rupiah merosot, karena anggapan apabila angka ini terlampaui maka kurs akan terus melemah. Bisa jadi hal ini mencerminkan semacam ‘trauma’ sejarah terhadap nilai tukar.

Indonesia memang pernah mengalami pengalaman pahit ketika terjadi krisis 1997/98, yang oleh banyak pihak disebut sebagai krisis nilai tukar. Saat itu nilai tukar rupiah merosot sangat tajam, menyebabkan nyaris ambruknya sistem perbankan dan banyak perusahaan gulung tikar serta perekonomian mengalami kontraksi sangat tajam. Bahkan, pemerintahan ‘jatuh’ hingga akhirnya kita mengalami perubahan yang mendasar di bidang politik dan sosial.

South African GOLD miner plans to cut 1,600jobs

South African mining firm Sibanye Gold Thursday said it plans to cut up to 1,600 jobs in restructuring aimed at reducing costs and boosting productivity.

The recently formed company said it would review its "entire business in order to extend the productive lives of its operations and ensure sustainability."

"The proposed restructuring could result in up to 1,600 jobs being affected," said a statement.

European stock drop, euro rises against dollar 00:21

European stock markets fell but the euro rose against the dollar on Thursday as traders reacted to US economic data and strong British retail sales figures.

London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares fell 1.58 percent to close at 6,483.34 points, while Frankfurt's DAX 30 dropped 0.73 percent to 8,376.29 points, and the CAC 40 in Paris shed 0.51 percent to 4,093.20 points.

"European stock markets have continued to feel the weight of imminent taper tension today dropping sharply as economic data continues to broadly improve, while company earnings announcements have generally missed expectations," said analyst Michael Hewson at CMC Markets UK.

Beberapa analis mengatakan laporan PMI yang kuat akan membantu mendukung pertimbangan Federal Reserve meruncing program pembelian obligasi-aset besar, sebuah langkah yang secara luas diharapkan akan diumumkan pada pertemuan kebijakan moneter The Fed awal September 17-18

US manufacturing activity heated up in July to a two-year high in the second straight month of growth, according to a monthly survey released Thursday. The Institute for Supply Management said its purchasing managers index for the 

manufacturing sector leaped to 55.4 in July, a solid 4.5 percentage points higher than June's 50.9 level.

The PMI reading was well above the average analyst prediction of 51.5 and the highest since June 2011. The PMI index has been above 50 -- expansion territory -- for the first seven months this year except May, when it dipped to 49.0. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction. 

Rosneft's

Russia's top oil company Rosneft announced an 18 percent surge in first-half profits to 137 billion rubles ($4.2 billion) on Monday, as crude production surged following the acquisition and consolidation of BP's former joint venture TNK-BP.

The state-controlled oil major said total hydrocarbon production rose 82.8 percent in the first half from the same period 2012. Net profit for the second quarter 2013 dropped to 35 billion rubles ($1.1 billion) from 102 billion rubles ($3.1 billion) in the first quarter as spending grew to uphold Rosneft's huge borrowing commitments. The second quarter of 2013 is the first full quarter where Rosneft has accounted for the new Siberian oilfield, refinery and downstream assets obtained in the $61 billion purchase of TNK-BP from the British oil giant and its Russian oligarch

Ben Bernanke vs Obama

US President Barack Obama will likely name a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in a few months, a senior White House official said Friday.

In response to a question about the much-buzzed about successor to Bernanke, whose second four-year term expires January 31, the official said tersely: "No decision made, no announcement imminent -- announcement likely not until the fall."

update gold, FRIDAY

 Global commodity prices mostly fell this week as traders took their cue from mounting worries over the Chinese economy, which is a crucial consumer of many raw materials and where data showed China's country's manufacturing activity contracted to an 11-month low in July.

OIL: World oil prices were shaken by stubborn Chinese demand concerns.
HSBC said in a survey Wednesday that its preliminary purchasing managers' index 
(PMI) hit 47.7 this month, down from a final 48.2 in June and the lowest since August. A reading below 50 indicates contraction, while anything above signals expansion.

100% berhasil sudut 45. Happy Trade

SUDUT 45 ON GOLD

update winq

UPDATE : GOLD 1196.40 TOZ